By Debbie Blossom
The Oklahoman

For the first time in five months Oklahoma’s economy showed positive signs of life in January, a survey of business leaders and supply managers released Monday said.

The state’s business conditions index reached 54.5 after December’s 43.0 and 49.4 in November, according to the Mid-America Business Conditions Index that covers nine states including Oklahoma. The report from the Creighton Economic Forecasting Group is headed by Omaha-based Creighton University economist Ernie Gross.

In the survey growth neutral is 50, and a figure greater than 50 indicates an expanding economy over the next three to six months.

The region also includes Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota.

Oklahoma components were new orders at 49.7, production, or sales, at 49.4, delivery lead time at 76.4, inventories at 45.5 and employment at 51.5. New orders and employment indexes showed big increases from the previous month, when new orders were at 39.5 and employment at only 33.0.

Mixed outlook

For manufacturing, the report was mixed.

"Except for food producers, nondurable-goods manufacturers reported weak economic activity for January,” Goss said.

"On the other hand, durable-goods producers are experiencing solid upturns in economic activity,” he said.

But although the outlook is improving, both manufacturing sectors are still not adding many jobs, he said.

The report "reflects what we’re seeing here,” said Joes Epperley with the Oklahoma Manufacturing Alliance.

State manufacturers are reporting a bit of growth, and more are doing better, Epperley said. But while layoffs and closing have greatly subsided, "Even with a robust recovery it could be a year before there is any hiring.”

At least the ball is rolling in the right direction, he said. "But that doesn’t mean it’s going fast.”

Regional picture good

The region’s overall index posted an improvement in January, Goss said, jumping to 54.7 from December’s 50.3 and November’s 47.5.

While surveys over the past several months point to a still-wobbly economic recovery, the January survey results are encouraging, Goss said.

"The likelihood of dipping back into recessionary territory has diminished significantly.”

The region’s employment picture improved; 13 percent of supply managers reported job losses, 17 percent said they were hiring, and fewer managers are now expecting layoffs this year, down from the past two months.

"While I would not call this a surge, it clearly reflects an improving job market,” he said.

Goss said record low interest rates, improving housing markets and stabilizing unemployment rates are keeping optimism high among supply managers in the region. He also believes exports will be an important component of any significant 2010 economic rebound.